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Topic: Chance 90 % ?

 
user
June 23, 2017, 1:13 pm
How is it that if chance is set to 90 %(procen)win. , meaning 90 out of 100 should win, and profit for each roll is 10% of bet accordingly, still loosing ratio is 8 out of 20 with 5 of them in a row??
With 90 % win, 5 in a row loosing should be maximum once in 100 000 rolls. I had it now twice in less than 2000 rolls. If your software is not natural random but programmed then how is this possible unless you just dont allow any winning results??
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user
Gustavo ☆☆☆☆☆
2017-06-24 17:59:53
Hello,

First of all I would like to apologize for the bad luck you have experienced on our website. Please keep in mind that it is purely mathematics and sometimes it does happens. We are a “Provably Fair” website, you can find more informations about this matter here: https://dicesites.com/provably-fair
I also invite you to verify your bets and seeds on the left Menu on Account → Provably Fair.
You can see that you bets will match the ones given by this verifier independent from us: https://dicesites.com/bitsler/verifier

Best of luck next time!
Kind Regards,
Gustavo
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user
2017-06-25 13:55:04
Gustavo, sou programador e conheço um pouco sobre os códigos Dice.. Não é porque existe um seed de verificação que o jogo seja honesto. Na verdade, propabilidade é uma equação matemática para calcular-se o quanto em uma amostragem é possível existir um evento qualquer. A questão é a parte que não contam, que é a parte prática. A probabilidade na prática, não é tão vasta quanto os números podem mostrar. Por exemplo: Em questão de probabilidade, existe 0,000000000000000000000000000000000001% de chance de eu pegar todas as peças de um Boing, joga-las para cima e quando cairem, formar um avião montado. A questão é está.. na probabilidade, existe uma porcentagem de chance de existir este evento, na prática, este evento nunca existirá. Mesmo, existindo uma probabilidade. Isso porque a probabilidade também trabalha com pontos de vista diferentes. Outro exemplo, qual a chance de sair um número na MegaSena? Te digo, é 100%, qual a probabilidade de sair um número sorteado? Aí já começa a entra a questão dos fatores externos, quantos jogadores tiveram naquele jogo, por exemplo? E qual a possíbilidade que sejas tu? Mais fatores externos, depende se tu jogou, se jogou, quantos números fizeste, se foram jogos separados, se foi um único jogo com mais de 6 números e etc..

Escrevi tudo isso para uma simples reflexão. Por mais que a BitSler, diga que o jogo é "Provably Fair", na verdade o jogo é manipulado para ganhar e isso é simples de fazer matemáticamente. Se eu estou com 90% de probabilidade, significa que são 10 erros em 100 bets (probabilidade), a parte que a BitSler não conta é que a matemática do Dice, deixa para acumular todas estas 10 perdas quase todas juntas (fator externo), a fim de realmente quase zerar a banca do apostador.

Percebe, dizer que o amigo ali em cima teve uma má sorte não é bem o correto, pois se a BitSler deixa-se realmente o Dice conforme a probabilidade manda, eles teriam prejuízo. Mesmo sabendo de tudo isso, ainda estou ai para me divertir.. mas o dono da BitSler, poderia ser menos ganancioso e deixar um pouco mais de probabilidade para os player, isso podia. O que ocorre na BitSler é que eles jogam com a matemática a favor deles, de forma injusta.


Gustavo, I have a programming notion and I know a little about the Dice codes. It is not because there is a verification seed that the game is honest. In fact, propensity is a mathematical equation to calculate how much in a sample is possible to exist any event. The question is the part that does not count, which is the practical part. The probability in practice is not as vast as the numbers can show. For example: In a matter of probability, there is a 0.000000000000000000000000000001% chance of me to take all the pieces of a Boing, throw them up and when they fall, form a plane mounted. The question is is .. in probability, there is a percentage chance of this event existing, in practice, this event will never exist. Even if there is a probability. That's because probability also works with different points of view. Another example, what's the chance of getting a number on MegaSena? I tell you, it's 100%, what's the probability of getting a number drawn? That's when the question of external factors begins, how many players did they play in that game, for example? And what is the possibility that you are? More external factors depends on whether you played, played, how many numbers you made, if it was a separate game, whether it was a single game with more than 6 numbers and more ...

I wrote all this for a simple reflection. As much as BitSler says that the game is "Provably Fair", in fact the game is manipulated to win and this is simple to do mathematically. If I am 90% probability, it means that there are 10 errors in 100 bets ( probability [/ b]), the part that BitSler does not count on is that Dice's mathematics leaves to accumulate all these 10 losses almost All together (external factor) [/ b], in order to really almost zero the bettor's bench.

Realize, saying that the friend up there had a bad luck is not quite right, because if BitSler actually leaves the Dice as the odds dictate, they would suffer. Even knowing all this, I'm still there to have fun .. but the owner of BitSler, could be less greedy and leave a little more probability for the players, this could. What happens in BitSler is that they play with mathematics on their behalf, unfairly.
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user
2017-06-25 15:12:56
I have also realise this, the longer I play the more losses occur, and I think most of the players here with small budgets are really suffering under this, just remeber bitsler is here solely becuase of its regular players without them bitsler won't excist att all, I also know bitsler need to turn a profit as any other business, but at least give the smaller players a better chance in winning.
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user
Gustavo ☆☆☆☆☆
2017-06-25 18:59:57
This is very simple to explain:

The verifier basically checks if the number that was supposed to go out really did.
So it checks if the algorythm that we used was the right one, and it always is.
We cant scam players because one part of the equation comes from the client seeds. The roll number is the result of the 2 seeds (server and client) mixed together.
If you would change 1 letter from the client the result would be completly different.

About probabilities thats a whole new story.
It does happens to loose 10 coin flips in a row. The coin doesnt have a memory, it doesnt think like "oh this guy already loose 9 times in a row I cant make him loose again". Every time is 50/50.

For example if you throw a real dice with 6 numbers on it, you should get 1 times each number right? Does it happens in real life? Throw it 6 times, you will probably repeat one or more of the numbers. But if you throw it on a simulation 1 million of times, you will see that it gets balanced.

The same happens here, put 50% on the dice game, throw it 10 times, you might win 6 and loose 4 or whatever. But if you play it 10000000 times, the numbers will be equal for win and loose.

On a short term everything can happen. On the long term things get balanced.

Our edge is known by everybody, its 1% on the dice. And that is enough for us to keep the website running. We dont manipulate mathematics, you guys knowing this the game its fair.

I will be here to answer your doubts on this subject.

Kind Regards,
Gustavo



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